My analyst just sent me this:
My heart sank.
What are we the Nigerian elite doing to our people?
And yet we have made it about Trump and the US, and colonization and imperialism and the White man is not to be trusted.
God have mercy on all of us and forgive us for the harms we caused both directly and from our silence to the innocent children and ordinary peoples of Nigeria.
And yes – thank you Trump and the USA!
“Defend the poor and fatherless… Deliver the poor and needy; rid them out of the hand of the wicked.” — Psalm 82:3–4.
O God hear our prayers and do not turn your eyes from evil. Forgive us, we weak sons of powerful ancestors, for we were raised in easy times and do not have the courage of our bloodline. O Lord, Give us the courage our fathers had to not look away even when it is safer to do so. Let our faith not fail us.
For when we keep quiet, evil will dominate the earth.
Nigeria looks as bad as – or worse than – several classic “war-torn” countries.
1. Headline comparison
Key metrics (approx 2023):
| Country | Crude death rate* (per 1,000 people / year) | Under-5 mortality (deaths before age 5 per 1,000 live births) | Life expectancy at birth (years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | ≈11.7 Macrotrends+1 | ≈105 UNICEF DATA | ≈54.5 Macrotrends+2countryeconomy.com+2 |
| Afghanistan | ≈5.8 Macrotrends+2Trading Economics+2 | ≈70 (early-2020s estimate) PMC | ≈66.0 Macrotrends+1 |
| Yemen | ≈4.8 Macrotrends+2Trading Economics+2 | ≈39 UNICEF DATA+1 | ≈69.3 Macrotrends+1 |
| Syria | ≈5.0 Trading Economics+2Macrotrends+2 | ≈21 UNICEF DATA+1 | ≈72.1 countryeconomy.com+2Macrotrends+2 |
*Crude death rate = total deaths from all causes per 1,000 people per year.
For reference, world averages in 2023:
- Crude death rate ≈ 7.6 per 1,000 Macrotrends
- Under-5 mortality ≈ 37 per 1,000 live births UNICEF DATA+1
2. What the numbers are saying
a) Overall death rate (all ages)
Using the World Bank-based series:
- Nigeria ≈ 11.7 deaths / 1,000 people / year
- Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria are all around 4.8–5.8 / 1,000. TheGlobalEconomy.com+8Macrotrends+8Macrotrends+8
So on this metric, Nigeria’s overall death rate is about 2–2.5× those “war-torn” cases and well above the world average (~7.6).
Intuition: out of 100,000 people:
- World: ~758 deaths per year
- Afghanistan/Yemen/Syria: ~500–600
- Nigeria: ~1,170+
b) Under-5 child mortality
Under-5 mortality is where the contrast is really stark:
- Nigeria: ~105 deaths per 1,000 births – so about 1 in 10 children die before age 5. UNICEF DATA+1
- Afghanistan: ~70 per 1,000 (still extremely high, but clearly below Nigeria). PMC
- Yemen: ~39 per 1,000. UNICEF DATA+1
- Syria: ~21 per 1,000. UNICEF DATA+1
- World average (2023): ~37 per 1,000. UNICEF DATA+1
Rough ratios:
- Nigeria’s under-5 mortality ≈ 1.5× Afghanistan,
- ≈ 2.7× Yemen,
- ≈ 5× Syria,
- ≈ 2.8× the global average.
So on child survival, Nigeria is not just “like a war zone” – it’s worse than these specific war zones on average.
c) Life expectancy
Latest estimates (2023):
- Nigeria: ≈ 54.5 years Macrotrends+2countryeconomy.com+2
- Afghanistan: ≈ 66.0 Macrotrends+1
- Yemen: ≈ 69.3 Macrotrends+1
- Syria: ≈ 72.1 countryeconomy.com+2Macrotrends+2
So a baby born in Nigeria can expect to live about 12–18 fewer years than one born in those war-torn countries, on average.
3. How to interpret this
- Nigeria’s mortality profile is “war-level” without a formal war.
The country’s overall death rate and child mortality are comparable to – or worse than – countries globally labelled as conflict/war zones. The deaths are mainly from:- preventable infectious diseases (malaria, pneumonia, diarrhoea),
- neonatal complications and obstetric causes,
- malnutrition,
- plus conflict/insecurity in parts of the country. Lippincott Journals+1
- War-torn countries have big war spikes, but not always higher average mortality.
Countries like Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan had huge spikes in conflict deaths in peak war years, but:- they also started with somewhat better child health baselines than Nigeria, and
- today the annual average death rate (all causes) is often lower than Nigeria’s, because many deaths are still from “silent” causes like child infections and maternal mortality in Nigeria.
- Data caveat.
- All of these are modelled estimates, especially for conflict countries where registration systems are weak.
- Exact numbers can shift slightly between data providers (World Bank vs CIA vs WHO), but the ordering is robust: Nigeria is in the very worst global tier for mortality, even compared to many recognized war-torn states. Wikipedia+1
Takeaway
Using standard global health indicators, Nigeria’s mortality burden – especially for children – is higher than in Afghanistan, Yemen or Syria today, and far above the world average, despite Nigeria not being officially at war.
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